There’s a fast-growing suspicion that the Big 12’s best football team resides in Stillwater, and most of the support for such a belief lies in the Cowboys’ defense.
OSU has the best defense in the conference. OSU has the best defense the conference has seen in many years.
But we knew that. And that alone can’t lift the Cowboys to a Big 12 championship. Some years, most years, having the Big 12’s best defense doesn’t evenlift a team to the Big 12 Championship Game.
You need an offense, too. And it’s looking more and more like OSU has one of those.
The Cowboys routed Texas Christian 63-17 Saturday night, and while yes, TCU’s defense stinks, that’s sort of the point.
In my Big 12 efficiency ratings, OSU’s offense has languished in the second division most of the season. But starting last Saturday, the Cowboys’ final three opponents were TCU, Texas Tech and OU. Defenses that today rank eighth, ninth and sixth in the Big 12.
I’m not saying the ground-oriented, Spencer Sanders offense that Mike Gundy trots out in 2021 is somehow comparable to the Air Raids of Brandon Weeden and Mason Rudolph. But I am saying, OSU’s offense likely is better than we surmised.
The Cowboys are up to fourth in Big 12 offensive efficiency and aren’t that far behindIowa State and Texas Tech, which are in a tie for second place. It’s quite conceivable that OSU’s offense could be No. 2 in the Big 12 going into Bedlam next week.
And the Big 12’s No. 2 offense, with this OSU defense, is quite a combination.
Remember, I judge offenses and defenses based on how often they score – and whether it’s via touchdown or field goal – compared to how many possessions they get or have to defend.
Here are the weekly ratings:
More:Tramel's ScissorTales: OSU or OU as 12-1 Big 12 champ still viable for playoff berth
OFFENSE
1.Oklahoma .521:Still an excellent offense, even though it was stuffed at Baylor. The Sooners scored two touchdowns in 10 possessions in Waco. Missing two field goals didn’t help.Spencer Rattler’s return for two possessions was interesting. In Big 12 games, OU’s offensive efficiency with Caleb Williams is .606. OU’s offensive efficiency with Rattler is .360.
2.Iowa State .438:The Cyclones have an excellent offense. They are going to score on OU. Brock Purdy, Breece Hall, Charlie Kolar. It’s going to happen. The Soonerslikely mustscorebigon ISUto win.
2.Texas Tech .438:The Red Raiders beat Iowa State with third-team quarterback Donovan Smith throwing for322 yards and three touchdowns. Tech’s quarterbacks under Mike Leach rarely were injured. But since then, Tech has a decent tradition of backup QBs playing well.
4.Oklahoma State .411:The Cowboy offense hasn’t really openedup,it’s just running the ball betterand Sanders is throwing better. In the last four games, Sanders has completed 66 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and a solitary interception.
5.Kansas State .405:Give KSU 10 possessions, it will score 28 points. That’s been close to the truth for about 25 years.
6.Texas.404: Maybe it’s time to give Steve Sarkisian some encouragement. His offense doesn’t stink -- .404 is a solid number – and he doesn’t have a top-flight quarterback.Sothere’s hope for the future.
7.Baylor .403:A bunch of offenses are bunched together.Despite Baylor’s victory over OU, the Bears’ offense wasn’t great. Good. It was very good. But not great.
8.TCU .324: Turns out, Chandler Morrisis not manna from Heaven. OSU shut him down rather easily.
9.West Virginia .227:This number is increasingly alarming. You can’t win football games in the Big 12 – or any other league of the 21stcentury – with this kind of offensive inefficiency.
10.Kansas .215:The Jayhawks’ offensive efficiency jumped 57 percent points after beating Texas. That’s crazy this late in the season.
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DEFENSE
1. Oklahoma State .157:A week ago, Kansas’ offensive efficiency for the conference season was .158. Which was historically low. One of the worst offenses in recent Big 12 history. And OSU’s defense now is stopping the entire conference at that rate. Amazing.
2. Baylor .282:The Bears’ defense was great against OU. Simply great. Turnovers, stops, pressure, stuffs, the entire package.
3. Iowa State .299:Strange defense. Seems stout. Often plays stout. Then there are games like at Tech and at West Virginia. I don’t get it.
4. West Virginia .342:Good solid defense, which would really have helped in the Will Grier/Geno Smith eras. But the Mountaineers need a mountain fortress defense to save its offense.
5. Kansas State .343:Middle of the pack. That’s about right.
6. Oklahoma .387:The Sooners played excellent defense for three quarters in Waco, then the dam broke. Now we know for sure that Alex Grinch’s third OU defense is just so-so. Not bad. Not all that good.Not going to win games for the Sooners.
7. Texas .414:The idea that Kansas’ offense could score six touchdowns in 12 possessions against the Longhorns is not something that passes the bounds of believability.
8. TCU .500:My question is, what happened? How did the Horned Frogs go from either great or good defenses year after year, to suddenly this disaster? Did the recruiting stop? Is there a player revolt? What happened?
9. Texas Tech .568:Strange but true. The Red Raiders actually have been stopping the run. Neither OU nor Iowa State, both traditionally strong running teams, reached 100 yards rushing the last two weeks, butthe Sooners and Cyclones passed them silly.
10. Kansas .639:The Jayhawks don’t care that they’re bringing up the rear. They beat Texas in Austin.
Predictions
One fun sidekick to the efficiency ratings is a tool by which we can predict the score of matchups. They are not predisposed to predicting blowouts, but they’re fun to scour.
Iowa State at Oklahoma:Cyclones 31-30.After Waco, who can argue? After the entire 2021 season, is it even an upset?
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech:Cowboys 37-24.The OSU offensive revival could make victory much easier.
Baylor at Kansas State:Bears 27-24.Should be a classic game in Manhattan. K-State is tied with Iowa State for fourth in the Big 12, only a game behind Baylor.
Texas at West Virginia:Longhorns 30-26.Your heart and your eyes say Mountaineers. But the numbers say Texas. Interesting experiment.
Kansas atTCU:Horned Frogs 35-27.Will the Jayhawks be fortified?
More:What are the scenarios for Big 12 football championship game matchups?
Don’t sweat the playoff rankings
The College Football Playoff rankings come out in a few hours, and each week, they get less and less interesting. Until the final production, of course.
It just doesn’t matter where the Big Ten ranks Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State. Those teams are going to determine Big Ten pecking order themselves.
It doesn’t matter where the committee ranks OSU, OU and Baylor. The final score of games will determine if the Big 12 has a playoff contender.
It doesn’t matter where Oregon is ranked. If the Ducks win out, they’re in the playoff. If they Ducks lose, they’re out.
The weekly rankings are for amusem*nt only. But if you need a little entertainment with your rankings, here are somequestions to ponder.
Will the committee place 9-1 Wake Forest ahead of 9-1 OU? I’m guessing yes.
Will the committee jump 9-1 Ohio State over 9-1 Oregon, even though the Ducks beat the Buckeyes in Columbus? I’m guessing yes.
Will the committee otherwise make any top-10 moves other than dropping the Sooners like an anvil? No. I think the Cincinnati/Michigan/Michigan State/Notre Dame/OSU order will remain the same.
Will Baylor outmuscle Ole Miss for a top-10 berth? I’m guessing no.
Here are my rankings for the week:
1. Georgia 10-0:Every discussion starts at No. 2.
2. Alabama 9-1:The loss isn’t terrible, no great wins but plenty of good wins. Lots to like about the Bama resume’.
3. Oregon 9-1:Ohio State is the smoking gun. Just because it happened in September makes it no less smoking.
4.Cincinnati10-0:I don’t know if the Bearcats will get in at 13-0. I do know the Bearcats won'tin at 12-1.
5.Ohio State9-1:If the Buckeyes beat Michigan State and Michigan and Wisconsin, we can quit worrying about who is No. 2.
6.Notre Dame10-0:Sudden thought. It’s a good thing Cincinnati beat the Fighting Irish, else Notre Dame would be a shoe-in for the No. 2 seed.
7. Oklahoma State 9-1:The Cowboys keep climbing. They need to concentrate, of course, on just winning.
8. Michigan State 9-1:Michigan State:The committeelast weekinexplicably ranked Michigan ahead of the Spartans. The nation came to Michigan State’s defense.
9. Michigan 9-1:The great thing about all this Big Ten debate? It all comes out in the wash.
10.Ole Miss8-2:The Rebels stacking up some good wins. Probably headed for the Sugar Bowl.
11. Baylor 8-2:The committee loved Baylor. The Bears dropped just one spot after losing to Texas Christian.
12.Wake Forest9-1:Yes, the Demon Deacons over OU. Wake’s best two wins (Virginia, North Carolina State) are better than OU’s two best wins (Kansas State, Texas Tech).
13. Brigham Young 8-2:BYU could bechallengingfor a major bowl berth. Get in the top 11, and the Cougars likely will be in the Fiesta Bowl.
14. Oklahoma 9-1:I don’t see how you can rank the Sooners any higher. Weak schedule. And in the committee’s criteria, poor performance.
15.Arkansas 7-3:With nogimmesin the Southeastern Conference West, all these teams have a bunch of good wins and solid defeats.
16.Wisconsin7-3:The Badgers’ defeats (Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan) are more impressive than their victories.
17. Mississippi State 6-4:Lots of good wins from the Bulldogs. North Carolina State. Texas A&M. Kentucky. Auburn.
18. Texas A&M 7-3:Great win over Alabama, but losses toArkansas, Mississippi State andOle Miss.
19. Iowa 8-2:I might have the Hawkeyes too low. They easily could finish 10-2, with Illinois and Nebraska awaiting.
20. Penn State 6-4:Lot of good wins, lot of tough losses.
21. Auburn 6-4:All four losses are to top-20 teams, plus wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss. The SEC West is brutal, I tell you.
22.San Diego State9-1:The Aztecs’ win over Utah still paying off.
23. Utah 7-3:Started off the season with losses to BYU and San Diego State, but those teams are a combined 17-3.
24.Pittsburgh 8-2:Best win, I suppose, is Clemson, but someone has to be ranked 24th.
25.Purdue6-4:One of the more interesting teams in college football, with almost no boring games.
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Manek shines at North Carolina
North Carolina basketball is as tradition-rich as Oklahoma football.So when there’s a coaching change – especially a coaching change ignited by the retirement of the iconic Roy Williams – it's a big deal.
So let the record show that the first Tar Heel points of the Hubert Davis era were scored by Brady Manek. Yep, that Brady Manek.
Maybe you had forgotten that Manek, a four-year OU stalwart, transferred to Carolina in the off-season.
After four seasons and 1,493 Sooner points scored, Manek now is a Tar Heel. And he’s off to a great start. Manek had 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting in UNC’s opener,an83-67 victory over Loyola-Maryland. Manek came off the bench for Game 2, a 94-87 win over Brown, and 14 points and eight rebounds.The Tar Heels play at College of Charleston on Tuesday night.
After the season opener in UNC’s famed Dean Dome, Manek said, “That was awesome to see, awesome to be a part of. That’s why I wanted to come here, that’s what I wanted to be a part of.
“It’s unbelievable I get to be a part of Coach Davis’s first team ever. I was a part of his first win. It’s just a great thing for me, a great thing for all of us. We’ll all look back and appreciate it.”
Manek seemed destined to transfer after Lon Kruger’s retirement. New OU coach Porter Moser is a defensive dominant coach, and defense hasn’t been Manek’s forte.
But the Tar Heels are raving about Manek, who at OU averaged 12.0 points and 5.6 rebounds over 124 career games.
“His reputation is as a great 3-point shooter, but he's not just that," Davis said. "He's a basketball player.
“One of the things that I said to(Manek)in the office just a couple days ago, is the onlythingthat I’m upset about in regards to him, is that I only get to coach him one year.”
Meanwhile, former OU teammateDe’VionHarmon, who transferred to Oregon, is starting for the Ducks. He has started both Oregon games and is averaging 10 points a game, though Harmon has made just six of 21 shots.
Every school is awash in transfers, and OU basketball got more than its share this off-season. But the Sooners also lost some quality players via the same transfer portal. Starting with Manek, who is making a name for himself on Tobacco Road.
Mailbag: Dave Aranda’s field goal
Baylor coach Dave Aranda’s decision to call timeout with three seconds left in the game, during which thousands of Baylor fans poured onto the field, then kick a field goal with a 10-point lead in an eventual 27-14 victory over OU, remains a huge topic.
Tom: “Berry, I’ve found you to be one of the most benefit-of-the-doubt writers around. I live just down the road from Baylor and find their fans to be among the most insufferable. However(and I hate to even say this about any Baylor coach), my take on Aranda is that he is genuine and thoughtful.You have pretty much stated (more than once, now), without equivocation, that Aranda’s sole reason for the timeout and field goal was to rub it in.My take, from what I’ve seen from local media, is that Aranda’s brain works in a way that is way more clinical than to do that.While his belief may have been misguided, he very well may have believed that a point-differential tiebreaker could come into play.You are throwing a flag based on judgement of intent. Upon further review, I reverse the call based on the reviewer’s judgement that intent was not to rub it in.Does Aranda’s history indicate he’s a rub-it-in kind of guy or an oddly dispassionate clinical kind of guy (I’ve not really paid attention to his history but don’t recall a ‘reputation’)?My view of your being such a straight-shooter benefit-of-the-doubt guy (and not a Sooner homer, as claimed by so many OSU alumni) makes me more curious as to your stepping out on a limb in directly calling out Aranda (who I hope gets hired out of the conference to the benefit of my Cowboys).”
Tramel: Well, I think you’re right, Aranda is aclinical-thinking kind of guy, much more than emotional. Which means he should know the rules. Which means we ought to believe he absolutely doesknow the rules. Why would a guy like that notknow the rules?That's what a clinical personality does. Knows the rules.
Maybe Aranda had a dispassionate reason for rallying the troops and planting a Big 12 flag in Lincoln Riley’s backside, I don’t know. But claiming tiebreaker point differential doesn’t wash. I know the tiebreaking rules. Aranda should, too. So don’t try to snow us.
But I will say this.In Aranda's defense, the tiebreaking procedureispoorly written. Probably penned bya lawyer. It wasn't written by a communicator.
Good Eats: Ray’s Smokehouse
When I was a teenager, Darrol Ray was one of my favorite OU players. Cool-looking dude. Great player at safety.
More than 40 years later, Ray is one of my favorite people, and his barbeque restaurant in Norman (with a new location in Moore) is a must-stop for OU fans.
Ray, who has been in the restaurant business since not long after retiring from the National Football League, opened Ray’s Smokehouse in 2008, in an old Pizza Hut building on West Lindsey.
The meat is superb, and the sides are great, starting with the homemade mac-and-cheese.
The walls are covered with football memorabilia, and as often as not, Ray is in one of the two restaurants, greeting customers and making sure the barbeque is top-shelf.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or atbtramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.
